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Full Recovery in New Orleans Estimated 15 Years

Emergency Management Alert, August 13, 2007

Those who catch the August 20 edition of Fortune might take note of the real-life reference to the Rule of Ten, which says that that the amount of time it takes for a place to return to normal functioning is 10 times the period it was uninhabitable. New Orleans' eight-week period passed the Rule of Ten in March, which marked 80 weeks.

Reporter Adam Lashiny spoke to Tulane president Scott Cowen, who's been involved in many recovery groups, including the New Orleans Redevelopment Authority. There is good (busy port activity, return of tourism and higher education), and there is bad (Tulane, for example, had to borrow $200 million for daily operations, and is using insurance claims and FEMA grants to pay down the debt). But Cowen remains optimistic. "The fact that the money is flowing bodes well," Cowen says. "A lot of surveys have been done, and 80% of the former residents of New Orleans would love to return."

Lashinsky points out that the time needed to completely rebuild is another factor of ten, or, for New Orleans, about 15 years. He quotes Cowen, "I've got to believe this is one of the great development stories in America," he says, "especially as people more clearly can see the progress we're making. Developers in particular have been taking a wait-and-see attitude. But I think private money will come down in droves."

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