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Experts say anthrax attack could kill 123,000

Hospital Safety Connection, March 20, 2003

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A large-scale anthrax attack on a major U.S. city could cause 123,000 deaths, Reuters reported on March 17.

Researchers at Stanford University used a mathematical model that examined the impact of an attack involving one kilogram of anthrax spores released from a height of 328 feet in a city of more than 10 million people. In this scenario, investigators predicted everyone would receive antibiotics at least 48 hours after an attack.

Many people would show symptoms of infection within two days of exposure, which would alert officials that an attack occurred. The study assumed the spores would be as easy to inhale as those used in the fall of 2001, when six letters filled with one to two grams of anthrax spores caused five deaths.

The study author, Lawrence Wein of Stanford, said the purpose of the study is not to cause panic, but to help officials develop a plan to reduce casualties in case of such an attack. Certain public health measures, such as more rapid access to medical care and quicker distribution of antibiotics, could dramatically reduce the number of deaths resulting from an anthrax attack, according to the study.

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