Ask the expert: How can I accurately predict future physician staffing needs?
Medical Staff Leader Connection, April 15, 2009
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Estimating future needs of the community can be tricky, but it’s not impossible. One of the factors you need to take into consideration is your population of aging physicians. Some currently active physicians will retire within the typical five-year planning period. Others will work fewer hours per week or see fewer patients as they approach retirement. A practical way to estimate the effects of such changes is to assume that all physicians currently aged 60 or older will retire within five years. Although many physicians will continue to work at a high level of productivity beyond age 65, some between the ages of 55–60 will retire or begin to restrict their practices well before they reach the age of 65. Experience has shown that assuming all physicians currently aged 60 or older will retire provides a reasonable estimate of the number of FTEs who will leave the physician work force within five years.
This week’s question and answer are adapted from The Hospital Executive’s Guide to Physician Staffing, by Hugo J. Finarelli, Jr., PhD, published by Health Leaders Media, Inc.
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