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Report says bird flu pandemic would spark global downturn

Infection Control Monitor, February 17, 2006

An Australian report on the macroeconomic fall-out of an influenza pandemic says a worst-case scenario bird flu pandemic could wipe $4.4 trillion off global economic output and kill more than 140 million people, Reuters reports.

The Lowy Institute for International Policy, an independent think tank, detailed four scenarios-mild, moderate, severe and ultra pandemics-using historical data on previous influenza pandemics and the economic fallout from the 2003 SARS crisis in Asia.

The report said a pandemic would lead to a fall in the labor force across countries, an increase in the cost of doing business, a shift in consumer preferences away from exposed sectors, and a re-evaluation of country risk.

A mild pandemic, similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu pandemic, could kill 1.4 million people and cost approximately $330 billion. A severe pandemic would be on the scale of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu, the report said. That pandemic killed between 20 million and 50 million worldwide.

The report says the economic costs of a pandemic would vary widely within regions and between countries.

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