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Computer models designed to combat infectious diseases

Infection Control Monitor, November 19, 2004

Researchers are developing computer models to simulate a hypothetical outbreak of the bird flu in an effort to learn how to contain the virus, according to the National Institutes of Health.

To simulate the spread of a possible avian flu outbreak in humans, researchers are creating models of a hypothetical Southeast Asian community of about 500,000 people living in neighboring small towns. The computer simulations will include data on population density, locations of hospitals, residents' travel habits, and the infectiousness of the virus.

The simulation models will allow researchers to test different intervention strategies that could reduce the rate of transmission between people. The objective is to evaluate methods to locally contain the spread of the disease.

The ultimate goal of the project is to identify disease prevention and control strategies that not only contain the virus, but also drop the number of people infected to zero and eradicate the virus from the human community.

Preliminary results from the models could be available by early January 2005.

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