Case Management

CMW news: Study says House version of healthcare reform bill will cover 24 million uninsured

Case Management Weekly, January 13, 2010

By 2019, 24 million currently uninsured individuals will have healthcare coverage if the House version of the healthcare reform bill becomes law, according to a simulation model issued by the RAND Corp.

The RAND analysis was limited to those portions of the Affordable Health Care for America Act, (H.R. 3962) that focused on insurance coverage. It also concludes that:

  • Compared with the projected status quo in 2019, approximately 12 million more people would be enrolled in employer-sponsored health insurance, 10 million more in Medicaid, and 8 million more in non-group insurance, including the proposed health insurance exchange's three options—basic, enhanced, and premium.
  • Among those who would purchase insurance through the exchange in 2019, "the vast majority (95%)" would select the basic plan, with the remaining few split between the enhanced and premium plans.
  • Personal health spending would increase by 3.3%, to $753 billion cumulatively between 2010 and 2019.
  • Federal subsidies between 2010 and 2019 would amount to $445 billion to help those who don't receive employer-sponsored health coverage comply with the individual mandate. Approximately 53% of 25 million people who purchase insurance through the exchange in 2019 would receive this subsidy.
  • Medicaid spending is projected to increase by $559 billion between 2010 and 2019, a 21% increase over projected trend in status quo.
  • Those not complying with the individual mandate would pay penalties totaling $75 billion between 2013 and 2019. Employers not complying with the employer mandates would pay $108 billion in penalties during that period.
  • For the employer market, average insurance premiums in 2019 will be at least 2% lower than projected in the status quo.
  • Insurance premiums for non-group policies will be higher. The increase is greater during the first few years after the reform becomes effective, but will be negligible by 2019, with an average increase through the period of about 4%, according to RAND.

Source: Healthleaders Media

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